Global Cancer Burden & India
By 2030, India and China will have the largest number of cancer cases in the world. Sad. But even sadder is the fact that they are also likely to be ill-prepared to deal with the cancer burden. This is because the ageing of the population and the consequent increase in cancer cases would happen much more faster than it did in the developing world.
For instance, while it took 115 years for the population over 65 years in a developed country like France to double from 7% (1865) to 14% (1980), in China, the proportion of elderly is expected to triple from 8% in 2006 to 24% by 2050, within just 44 years. And in India, it is expected to go up from about 7% in 2001 to about 13% by 2030, a doubling within just 29 years.
The risk of cancer increases substantially with ageing, but the difference is that in the case of the developed world, the ageing of their populations was a gradual process giving them time to put treatment and care mechanisms for cancer in place. Japan too doubled its proportion of population aged 65 and above in just 26 years and saw an increase in cancer burden, as most of Asia will in the next 25 years.
The global cancer burden doubled in the last 25 years and is set to double again by 2030, said the report published by State of Oncology 2013, adding that the dominant contribution to the global burden will be from India, China and Nigeria in the next 50 years as these countries will account for one-third of the world population by 2050.
The problem will be acute in these countries where the populations are ageing rapidly, will live longer with rising life expectancy and will have developed Western life styles conducive to increasing the risk of cancer, warned the report.
While the incidence of cancer is rising, there are more patients alive within five years of diagnosis, which has financial implications too since it is in this five-year period that patients would need active treatment and intense follow up, pointed out the report, adding that this would be a huge pressure on health services.
It is bad to have cancer, but worse to have it if you are poor, pointed out the report elaborating how despite continuing improvements in cancer prevention, early detection and treatment, there was wide variation in the availability and quality of care around the world and within countries.
According to the report, while two out of every five people diagnosed with cancer in resource-rich countries will die prematurely, in resource-poor countries nine out of ten people will die prematurely as most cases would be coming in too late for treatment and they would be too poor to afford the treatment.
The best tool we have against the fight against cancer is undoubtedly prevention through awareness.
Dr. Ajay Sati.
